It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better" for Dog Behavior Professionals

Sparky Smith
Jun 2
4 min read

"As we work together, you need to know that things will get worse before they get better ..."

There’s a moment every trainer or behaviourist dreads.

The client texts after a promising start to say:

“It’s worse now.”

And under that message is the real question:

“Did you just make things worse?”

This isn’t about failed technique.

It’s about a reality few professionals are prepared for:

In complex behaviour cases — it often gets worse before it gets better.

And if you don’t expect it, predict it, and build for it, you’ll lose your client before the system even has a chance to shift.

Systems thinking gives us more than just an explanation—it gives us powerful preparation strategies.

The Problem: The Dip That Looks Like Failure

In traditional training paradigms, success is expected to follow effort.

But in systems science, that expectation is misleading.

Jay Forrester, founder of System Dynamics, taught that structure drives behaviour, and delays between cause and effect often create confusion for change-makers. When you alter inputs in a behavioural system — particularly one that’s tightly held together by trauma, habit, and survival strategies — the system often pushes back.

This resistance isn’t failure. It’s the system doing what it’s built to do: maintain equilibrium.

This creates what systems thinkers call “the dip”:

Initial resistance – The system (dog + caregiver + environment) tries to keep familiar patterns intact
Overshoot – Behaviour escalates as the system destabilises (e.g., extinction bursts, increased clinginess, regression in toileting or recall)
Reorganisation – New patterns begin to form, but may not be visible yet
Stabilisation – The system settles into a new pattern, one that may allow growth, regulation, or calm to emerge

What looks like regression is often the system attempting to hold on — even as you’re helping it let go.

The Deeper Challenge: Misreading the Regression

The problem isn’t just the dip.

It’s that most clients — and even some professionals — don’t recognise it as a natural systems response.

Instead, they interpret it as:

The protocol isn’t working
The dog is getting worse
The trainer may not be the right fit
The behaviour is escalating beyond control

This leads to early drop-out, panic interventions, over-medication, and inconsistent follow-through.

But what’s really happened is that the system was never prepared for what change would look like.

Resolution: How to Anticipate and Support the Dip

Systems Thinking offers more than an explanation.

It gives you tools to prepare your intervention, prepare your client, and track what matters.

1. Map the System Before You Begin

Identify every reinforcing loop: e.g., “Does the dog bark more when the caregiver raises their voice?”
Use the Bio-Coloured Framework to identify transition behaviours — subtle indicators that the dog is shifting between neurobiological states (e.g., from red to white, or white to green). These “doorway moments” are often brief, but they are your leverage point for regulation and co-agency.
Use causal loop diagrams to visualise triggers, reinforcers, and caregiver influence points

2. Preload the Intervention

Stabilise the human system — ensure the caregiver’s routines, voice, and posture are co-regulatory
Teach incompatible behaviours first (“Go to mat” before counter-conditioning door reactivity)
Set expectations: “We expect regression somewhere between session x and x (x being the session number that aligns to your pacing, for example, in our 12-week program it was usually between session 5 and 7). That doesn’t mean it’s failing — it means the old loop is losing grip.”

3. Manage the Dip, Don’t Avoid It

Have caregiver track daily progress indicators, like frequency and duration of observable issues, not binary “good/bad days”.
Provide extra caregiver support during the expected resistance window
Plan for a way to maintain momentum during the dips, like introducing dog-parent-specific meditation, or introducing joyful ritual-making for them and their dog.

4. Leverage the Right Points

Drawing from Donella Meadows’ work, change efforts vary in their impact:

High leverage: Shift the system’s goal (e.g., from “stop barking” to “build security”)
Mid leverage: Shift the story (e.g., “Your dog isn’t stubborn. He’s using what worked before.”)
Lower leverage: Adjust timing or frequency of reinforcement

Why It Matters: Holding Clients Through the Hard Part

Clients abandon behavioural protocols not because they don’t care, or are impatience — but because they’re unprepared for what the system naturally does when disrupted.

They misread instability as failure.

They revert to old patterns to relieve tension.

And they lose trust in the process just when it starts to work.

As professionals, our job is not only to know this but to design for it.

Schedule extra check-ins around known regression windows
Share diagrams that help clients see the whole system
Repeat: “This is the moment most people quit. It means the system is responding.